Category Five on the way

Kansas, so far, is going to feel the effects this year of a revenue shortfall in the range of a Category Two hurricane. But a much, much worse Category Five is on the way.

This fiscal year, which started in July and runs through June 2009, is going to be $240 million short to balance the budget. That is because the economy everywhere, including here, is falling apart, so Kansas is feeling the effects of less tax revenue.

So, anyone out there who was hoping for the completion of a state transportation plan, funding for education beyond what has already been promised, health care initiatives, or new energy policies can forget it, except for any Obama stimulus windfall that might come our way.

There will be cuts, but they will be manageable.

But I don’t want to talk about this year’s dilemma, because we will get through it, with some pain. Like a Category Two hurricane, the damage will be considerable, but tolerable.

You know what a Category Five hurricane is, particularly one that hits a high-density population area? Total devastation.

That monster leaves nothing in its wake and is a crisis almost beyond the imagination.

That hurricane, fellow Kansans, is gathering force for budget year 2010. We are in the bull’s eye. And it will not veer off course.

We are staring at a budget deficit in the next fiscal year of – hold on for dear life – one billion dollars. That’s out of a budget of about $6 billion.

How could a calamity like this happen?

Three reasons. The deep recession is taking its toll on tax revenues. The state has been overspending. And the generous tax cuts of about $600 million over the past two years, and some before, are all catching up to us.

Experts tell me a budget deficit of that magnitude, a 15 percent deficit, will almost certainly mean cuts in K-12 public education spending, which represents half the state’s budget. If that were not cut, we would be looking at 30 percent cuts elsewhere, decimating every social service program and every other state agency, including prisons.

The nightmare for politicians is this question: Can the Legislature and governor come up with ways to plug a billion dollar shortfall, a category five emergency, without raising taxes?

No one but a columnist will dare to say no. Everyone else will deny it. But there is no way to deal with a billion dollar shortfall out of a budget of $6 billion without raising taxes. The Legislature will blame the governor, and the governor will blame the Legislature. In the end, however, it will be so ugly, tax increases will be an absolute necessity.

Make no mistake. The tax increases will be on top of some of the deepest budget cuts the state has ever faced.

Now, you have been warned.

But like all impending disasters, certainly, we will put it out of our minds until we have to deal with it. In the meantime, the Category Five hurricane lurks just beyond our shores.

Contact Steve Rose at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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